Non-farm payroll report

Of all the world monthly economic reports, the monthly US NFP report is the most highly anticipated and has the most dramatic impact on the currency market. 

The report, which is released on the first Friday of each month and states the previous month’s numbers, provides detailed industry data on employment, hours and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.  These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state of the US market as well as the direction that the economy is heading. 

What’s more, the employment numbers provided by the report are used by the Fed to shape their interest rate policies.  The health of the US economy and interest rates translate to the strength or weakness of the US dollar. 

ABC Consumer Confidence

The ABC Consumer Confidence released by the ABC News captures the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their personal financial situation . A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index

The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average of the amount of money the consumers spend in a month. "Core" excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.

Pending Home Sales

The Pending Home Sales released by the National Association of Retailers is a leading indicator of trends of the housing market in the US It captures residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. As the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Personal Income

The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce measures the total income received by individuals, from all sources including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers' compensation, proprietors' earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. A high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.

Personal Spending

The Personal Spending released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by individuals. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth: While the Personal spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to rise interest rates. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the USD.

Wholesale Inventories

The Wholesale Inventories captures sales and inventory statistics from the second stage of the manufacturing process. The sales figures do not move the market as they do not reflect personal consumption while wholesale inventories may change the aggregate inventory profile which can influence the GDP forecast. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative ( or Bearish).

Fed Interest Rate Decision

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve announces an interest rate. This interest rate affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers. It also tends to affect the exchange rate. If the Fed is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the USD.

ABC Consumer Confidence

The ABC Consumer Confidence released by the ABC News captures the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their personal financial situation . A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Building Permits

This report released by the US Census Bureaushows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the USD. The more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the USD.

MBA Mortgage Applications

The MBA Mortgage Applications released by the Mortgage Bankers Association presents various mortgage applications. It is considered as a leading indicator of the U.S Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall US economy. Thus, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

Survey of manufactures in New York conducted by Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It indicates the overall manufactures in the United Sates. A positive result indicates bullish for US Dollar. A negative result shows poor growth of US Dollar.

NAHB Housing Market Index

NAHB Housing Market Index is released by the National Association of Home Builders. It presents home sales and expected home buildings in the future indicating housing market trend in the United States. The growth rate of the housing market affects the USD volatility. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Housing Starts

The Housing Start released by the US Census Bureau is an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. The figures include all private and publicly owned units. It indicates movements of the US housing market. A high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Gross Domestic Product Annualized

The Gross Domestic Product annualized released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis shows the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country in a given period of time. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. A high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.

Leading Indicators

The Leading Indicators released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It is considered as a measure for economic stability in United States. This event generates some volatility for the USD. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

Import Price Index

The Import Price Index released by The U.S. Department of labor informs the changes in the price of imported products into the U.S.The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation, redunding in a higher probability of a rate rise. Therefore, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

Trade Balance

The trade balance is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD. If a steady demand in exchange for U.S. exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the USD.

Continuing Jobless Claims

The Counting Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as negative, or bearish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as positive, or bullish.

Initial Jobless Claims

The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Therefore, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.

Producer Price Index

The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy

The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Retail Sales

The retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Retail Sales ex Autos

The Retail Sales ex Autos released by the US Census Bureau is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes except the automobile sector. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. This report is the "advance" report, which can be revised fairly significantly after the final numbers are calculated. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the USD.

Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

The Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the Reuters/University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. A high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Business Inventories

The business inventories released by the US Census Bureau measures the monthly percentage changes in inventories from manufacturers, retailers, and wholesalers. The sales figures do not move the markets as they do not reflect personal consumption; while wholesale inventories may change the aggregate inventory profile which can influence the GDP forecast.

Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy

The Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

Capacity Utilization

The Capacity Utilization released by the Federal Reserve Board is the percentage of the US production capacity which is actually used over the short-time period. It is indicative of overall growth and demand in the U.S. economy. A high capacity utilization stimulates inflationary pressures. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).

Industrial Production

The Industrial Production released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve shows the volume of production of US industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. If High industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the USD.